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Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Polls. Polls. And More Polls.

One thing I've noticed in the last few elections is that the media loves to use polls. They love to use polls to show trends. They love to use polls to show one candidate ahead of another. But mostly they love to use polls to try to swing the election.

That's right, I believe the media uses polls to try to get you and I to vote for THEIR candidate. The drive-by, left-wing, liberal-biased media wants Obama to win, and if they have to manipulate a few polls toward that end, then by golly, that is what they are going to do.

A friend of mine pointed this out in 2000. Gore was leading Bush in the polls pretty much the entire election. It just didn't feel right, since even the majority of liberals I knew weren't that jazzed by Al Gore. Yet Gore was up, mostly by double-digits, until just a couple of weeks out.

2004 was similar. Kerry led Bush again by a fairly substantial margin. Even when the Swifties were in full swing, Kerry still managed to keep a lead in the polls just above the margin of error. Again until about 2 weeks out.

The media wants would-be Republican voters to believe the election is already lost. The media is hoping that those voters will choose to stay home on election day because their candidate has no chance. Ann Coulter recently wrote a column about how the polls always error on the side of the Democrat. This election cycle is no different.

This friend also pointed out that the polls always tighten about 2 weeks out. Interesting isn't it? Our (my friend's and my) theory is that the media is smart enough to know that if their polls are completely off then no one will pay attention to them any longer. Kind of like exit polls after the 2004 election. So they tighten the polls close to the election to give the illusion of accuracy, and thereby trying to save any perceived integrity the polls may still have.

This tightening seems counter-intuitive to the idea of the media trying to swing the election, but it does make sense. The media is counting on disenfranchising Republican voters well in advance of the final 2 weeks. The hope is that these voters will have given up and have stopped paying attention. Then when the polls tighten, those voters won't even notice. On election day, when the results come in close, as they did in 2000 and 2004, the media can point to their polls and claim that this is exactly as expected since the final 2 weeks of polling data was well within the margin of error.

As this election has gone on, the media has kept growing Obama's lead in the polls. But in these final 2 weeks, the polls have predictably tightened. If the election goes to McCain, the media will claim that Obama's lead was within the margin of error, and therefore the outcome was not completely unexpected.

And of course they will claim that Americans are racist.

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